Most economists see recession ending in 2009
More than 90% of economists predict the recession will end this year, although the road to recovery is likely to be bumpy according to the National Association for Business Economics.
About 74% of the economic forecasters expect the recession to end in the third quarter of 2009. Another 19% predict the turning point will come in the final quarter of this year. The remaining 7% believe the recession will end in the first quarter of 2010.
The economists believe that unemployment will climb this year even if the economy rebounds, signaling that companies may not rush to hire until the recovery is firmly rooted.
Small signs that are raising hope that the worst of the recession may be over – the sale of new U.S. single-family homes rose slightly in April and fewer workers filed for first-time jobless aid in late May.
New home sales climbed 0.3% in April from March to a 352,000 annual unit pace. New home prices rose 3.7% showing the biggest monthly advance since November.
Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits dropped by 13,000 to 623,000 in the week ending May 23, which was a second straight weekly drop.
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LAST UPDATED 6/3/2009